JAN KALLBERG

Sowell är så "on target"

Har postat en gång tidigare - nu 2 år gammal - men den blir bara bättre

"Ansvarslöst att dela ut pengar"

"Ansvarslöst att dela ut pengar".

Hela resonemanget faller på att det är deras pengar och de kan göra vad de vill med dem - så länge det är lagligt och bolagsstämman är med på det.

För Wall Street - ja - men inte Main Street

”Världsekonomin nära botten” | Näringslivsnyheter | SvD.

"Världsekonomin bottnar i vår eller sommar, menar Morgan Stanleys chefsekonom Joachim Fels. Återhämtningen är emellertid svag och det kan bli en repris på 1970-talets stagflation."

Wall Street har förnyat förtroende och kommer att sakta börja återhämta sig, så tillvida håller jag med, men det tar säkert två år innan det når den vanliga gatan i USA. Och Sverige har inte än nåtts av lågkonjunkturen. Det är den verkliga fördröjningen. Jag tror botten i Sverige ligger minst ett och halvt till två år framåt. Och jag är inte lika säker att Sverige återhämtar sig lika snabbt som under 1990-talet. De svenska exportloken har ingen dragkraft längre.

MRK - Merck & Co., Inc. - Google Finance

MRK - Merck & Co., Inc. - Google Finance.

Direktavkastning på 5.83 % ---

Stock Rally Poised Continue - WSJ.com

Stock Rally Poised Continue - WSJ.com.

"U.S. stock futures Tuesday pointed to an extension of the previous day's rally, after better-than-expected quarterly earnings from Home Depot. Less than two hours before the start of trading, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 60 points lower at 8530. The S&P 500 futures slipped 5.6 to 912.7, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost four points to 1392.5. Changes in futures do not always accurately predict early market moves after the opening bell."

Att oljan stiger får nog alla se som in indikator på att man tror att konjunkturen börjar vända - fast arbetslösheten kommer att öka i ett år till. Det tar en rejäl stund innan en svängning känns isamhället. Wall Street är alltid ett halvår före...

The next global economic shock?

The next global economic shock?.

"The problem for Western European finance is that it holds most of the international loans in these sinking economies. European banks, for instance, hold some 54 percent of the $1.4 trillion of foreign bank loans residing in the Asian emerging economies. (For perspective, American banks hold only 15 percent of such debt.) Of the $1.8 trillion of foreign bank loans in Eastern Europe, more than 70 percent resides in Western European banks."

Peter Schiff om inflation --

Ron Paul om krisen ---

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street.

"A year ago, it was hardly unthinkable that a math wizard like David X. Li might someday earn a Nobel Prize. After all, financial economists—even Wall Street quants—have received the Nobel in economics before, and Li's work on measuring risk has had more impact, more quickly, than previous Nobel Prize-winning contributions to the field. Today, though, as dazed bankers, politicians, regulators, and investors survey the wreckage of the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, Li is probably thankful he still has a job in finance at all. Not that his achievement should be dismissed. He took a notoriously tough nut—determining correlation, or how seemingly disparate events are related—and cracked it wide open with a simple and elegant mathematical formula, one that would become ubiquitous in finance worldwide."

Fick av Daniel.

New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key Takes a Supply-Side Approach to the Global Recession - WSJ.com

New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key Takes a Supply-Side Approach to the Global Recession - WSJ.com.

"But ultimately, Mr. Key says his biggest fear is rising inflation on the back of rising money supplies. "Economic theory will tell you that inflation is going to rise -- and that inflation will be exported around the world. . . . In the short term, I'm not criticizing U.S. policy: I think inflation is probably the thing that's going to be necessary to get them out of the current issue. [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke sort of signaled that. But longer term, inflation is cancerous to your economy." So would Mr. Key, the onetime foreign-exchange trader, buy or sell the U.S. dollar? As we move toward the door, the press secretary steps in: That's one call that's off the record."

Soros sees no bottom for world financial collapse | U.S. | Reuters

Soros sees no bottom for world financial collapse | U.S. | Reuters.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis. Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union. He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system. "We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom." His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama. Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain. "I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said. (Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa and Juan Lagorio; Editing by Gary Hill)

Crisis of Credit part 2

Crisis of Credit

Stabilisering

Kurserna har nu stabiliserats sig på "support-level" i USA, vilket gör att USA borde redan om sex - åtta månader ha en stigande konjunktur igen. Det beror en hel del på politik och förtroendet för regeringens åtgärder. Det är inte säkert att detta keynesianska utösandet av pengar i ekonomin är till enbart båtnad för återhämtningen. Den federala budgeten kommer då att konkurrera om de fria medel som finns.

Fördröjning -

Det tar ungefär 2 år innan en lågkonjunktur slår igenom. Det gör att Sveriges lågkonjunktur märks först riktigt "på gatunivå" om ett år eller ett och halvt kanske vintern 2009/2010.

How to Avoid Getting Burned by the Next Bernard Madoff - washingtonpost.com

How to Avoid Getting Burned by the Next Bernard Madoff - washingtonpost.com.

"A few basic checks can go a long way. Most important, know where your money goes when you hand it over. Whoever manages your portfolio should use an independent financial institution, known as a custodian, to hold your assets. Get the name of the firm and its contact information. Instead of relying on your adviser's word, check out the custodian yourself. And if your adviser is producing his or her own statements, as Madoff apparently was, watch out. "The presence of a custodian ensures that money from new investors can't be used to pay off old investors," says John Coffee, a financial expert and law professor at Columbia Law School."

MarketWatch.com: Stock Market Quotes - Business News - Financial News

MarketWatch.com: Stock Market Quotes - Business News - Financial News.

MarketWatch är oerhört bra och de facto - gratis!

SWHC

Igår pratade jag om SWHC som aktie. Idag gick det upp 31 %. Det är äkta kausalitet.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Link: Bloomberg.com: Worldwide.

"Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer spending tumbled in September and a purchasing managers' survey showed the biggest deterioration since 1968, foreshadowing a deepening economic slump.

``Consumers have thrown in the towel,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, who correctly forecast the drop in purchases. ``They have no choice but to cut back on spending in a very big way. This is going to be a fairly deep, long recession.''

Irakiska Armén köper Smith & Wesson Nasdaq:SWHC

SPRINGFIELD, Mass., Oct. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: SWHC), parent company of Smith & Wesson Corp., the legendary 156-year old company in the global business of safety, security, protection and sport, announced today that it has shipped 7,500 M&P9 pistols to the U.S. Armed Forces in Iraq for distribution to Iraqi military and security forces. The procurement order was issued by the U.S. Army Tank-Automotive and Armaments Command. Smith & Wesson will also supply supplemental accessories and spare parts for the firearms.

Leland Nichols, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing of Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation, said, "We are extremely pleased that the M&P9 pistol was selected for use by the Iraqi government for its military and police forces. Since its introduction in January 2006, the M&P pistol series has been selected for purchase or as an approved firearm by over 430 law enforcement and security agencies in the United States and 16 other countries throughout the world. Today’s announcement reflects the first order we have received for shipment of the M&P9 into Iraq. Its performance continues to demonstrate that the M&P polymer pistol series is highly suitable not only for law enforcement and personal protection, but also for use by military professionals."

SWHC är en aktie som står lågt just nu (runt $1.70 - $1.80) men med både McCain och Obama borde de ha en jättechans att bryta in på försvarsmarknaden i bl.a. USA som enbart nu köper automatvapen från Colt och Savage. Jag tror SWHC som aktie har en rejäl uppsida.